Return is the gain or loss on an investment over a specified period, expressed as a percentage of the original investment. It measures how well an investment has performed and is the primary way investors evaluate the success of their investment decisions.
Understanding return
At its core, return answers a simple question: "How much money did I make (or lose) on this investment?" It is typically expressed as a percentage, making it easy to compare investments of different sizes.
Basic formula: Return = ((Ending Value - Beginning Value) / Beginning Value) × 100
Example: You buy a stock for $100, and it rises to $115
- Return = (($115 - $100) / $100) × 100 = 15%
Simple analogy
Think of return like a report card for your investments. Just as grades tell you how well you performed in school, returns tell you how well your money performed while invested. An "A+" might be a 20% annual return, while an "F" might be losing 30% of your investment.
Types of returns
Nominal return vs. real return
- Nominal return: The raw percentage gain before adjusting for inflation
- Real return: The return after subtracting inflation, showing actual purchasing power gained
Example: If your investment returns 8% but inflation is 3%:
- Nominal return: 8%
- Real return: 8% - 3% = 5% (approximately)
The real return is what actually matters for building wealth.
Price return vs. total return
- Price return: Only considers the change in price
- Total return: Includes price change PLUS dividends, interest, and other distributions
Example: A stock rises from $100 to $105 (5% price return) and pays a $3 dividend:
- Price return: 5%
- Total return: ($105 + $3 - $100) / $100 = 8%
Always use total return
When comparing investments, always use total return. Dividends and distributions often account for 30-50% of long-term stock market returns. Ignoring them gives an incomplete and misleading picture of performance.
Absolute return vs. relative return
- Absolute return: The actual gain or loss (e.g., "I made 12%")
- Relative return: Performance compared to a benchmark (e.g., "I beat the S&P 500 by 2%")
Annualized returns
When comparing investments held for different periods, annualized return provides an apples-to-apples comparison by showing the equivalent yearly return rate.
Example: You earn 50% over 3 years
- Simple average: 50% / 3 = 16.67% per year (incorrect)
- Annualized return: (1.50)^(1/3) - 1 = 14.47% per year (correct)
The annualized formula accounts for compounding and gives a more accurate picture.
Historical average returns by asset class
Understanding historical returns helps set realistic expectations:
| Asset Class | Average Annual Return (1926-2023) | Volatility |
|---|
| US Large-cap Stocks | 10-11% | High |
| US Small-cap Stocks | 11-12% | Very High |
| International Stocks | 8-9% | High |
| US Government Bonds | 5-6% | Low |
| Corporate Bonds | 6-7% | Moderate |
| Gold | 5-7% | Moderate |
| Cash/T-Bills | 3-4% | Very Low |
| Real Estate (REITs) | 9-11% | Moderate-High |
Note: Past returns do not guarantee future performance.
The risk-return relationship
A fundamental principle of investing is that higher potential returns come with higher risk. This is why:
- Stocks return more than bonds over time (but are more volatile)
- Small-cap stocks return more than large-cap stocks (but are riskier)
- Emerging market investments offer higher potential (with greater uncertainty)
Understanding this relationship helps you choose investments appropriate for your goals and risk tolerance.
Calculating returns for different scenarios
Single investment
You invest $10,000 and it grows to $14,000 over 4 years:
- Total return: 40%
- Annualized return: 8.78%
Regular contributions (Dollar-cost averaging)
When you invest periodically, calculating returns is more complex. You need to use methods like:
- Time-weighted return: Eliminates the impact of cash flows
- Money-weighted return (IRR): Accounts for timing of contributions
After fees and taxes
Real-world returns must account for:
- Management fees (typically 0.03% to 1%+ annually)
- Transaction costs
- Taxes on dividends and capital gains
A fund that returns 8% but charges 1% in fees gives you only 7% net return.
Common return benchmarks
Investors often compare their returns against standard benchmarks:
- S&P 500: US large-cap stock benchmark
- Russell 2000: US small-cap benchmark
- MSCI World: Global developed markets
- Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index: US bond market
- Risk-free rate: Usually short-term Treasury bills
Beating your benchmark consistently over time is considered successful investing.
Setting realistic return expectations
What to expect
For a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds, expecting 6-8% annual real return (after inflation) over the long term is reasonable. Anyone promising consistent 20%+ returns with low risk is likely misleading you. If it sounds too good to be true, it usually is.
Common mistakes with returns
- Chasing past returns: Last year's winners often become this year's losers
- Ignoring inflation: A 5% return with 4% inflation is only 1% real growth
- Forgetting fees: Small fees compound into large amounts over decades
- Short-term focus: Judging investments based on months instead of years
- Ignoring dividends: Missing a major component of total return
Related terms
- Compound: How returns build on returns over time
- Dividend: A component of total return for stocks
- Volatility: The variability of returns, a measure of risk
- Drawdown: Negative returns from peak to trough
- Risk premium: Extra return expected for taking on additional risk